Dog Days and Haboobs

As drove to Phoenix the other day I experianced something new. This started as a typical late summer dog day, clouds building on the horizon and crawling over the mountaintops like whipped cream on a sundae. The monsoon rain and wind came and went three times as I headed north, suddenly up ahead it appeared to be fog. I knew this could not be. But it seemed to be rolling across the interstate the way fog comes in from the ocean. As I came closer to it the color was a light tan not grey, it was dust and sand from the surrounding desert. It was not blowing the way dust storms do, it was hovering. As I drove it became thicker and darker this was something I had never experianced, yet my instincts told me to keep moving forward. Later I found out this was a small haboob or dust cloud. The heat of this dog day 112 and the monsoon wind patterns had created this phenomenon. I began pondering how our Real Estate market the past few years is much like this. We began seeing signs on the horizon much like monsoon clouds. Our market was very overheated and had wind patterns pushing in from other areas causing a large cloud to hover over the market. This haboob like storm has been new to us, it has been denser, more far reaching, and longer lasting than ever before in my career. Just like the cloud of sand I drove through this market will end also. It seemed I would never come out of the dust, just as sudden as it appeared it was gone. If I had not kept moving forward I could have been stuck in the storm. Do not allow yourself to become stuck keep moving forward with your life and plans. You may need to alter the plan as I had to alter my speed, but we will all come out the other side.

THE HEAT INDEX IS RISING

It's the end of July and things are heating up in our Real Estate Market. No it's not 2005 but those of us that have continued in the face of adversity are beginning to feel the rewards. I'm not talking about the elusive commission check only, but seeing people who had been priced out of the frenzied market able to step in now. With the great convergence of low interest rates and low prices the opportunities are boundless. Yes the search for a home can seem overwhelming since there are so many, most with distress of one kind or another. As a buyer you must have total trust in the team assisting you, lender, Realtor, inspector, and others. The process today is not easy with so many types of transactions available. Short sale is a trial of ones patience. It can be very humbling when you realize it does not matter who you are or how much cash you have, it will take time. I recently had a client buying a winter home that was a short sale, he had not purchased a home in over two decades. The process was confusing and irrating to him. After many weeks on a rollercoaster ride he has the home he wanted at the price he wished to pay. Foreclosed or REO properties have another set of challanges. Many of these properties have been empty a few monthes to over a year this is not good. The price point is very attractive yet condition gives one pause. Yes you can find a good REO home but be prepared to have an extended search. I am closing one next week with a young family that could not afford this home in the previous market. The home is move in condition, could use some updating but this can be done over time. With the low price and interest they will be able to do this soon and have a showplace. Do not be mislead todays market does have heat, it's all relative to your position.

SLOW MOVING TRAINS AND THE REAL ESTATE MARKET

As the freight train slowly made its way through town time seemed to slow down. It was

moving slow enough to read the graffiti on the boxcars and dream of the past. I was in a

long line of cars with a large SUV full of kids in front of me and a work truck behind. Next to

me was a carload of teens with the stereo blaring Hip Hop or Rap I'm not sure. I knew it was

going to be a wait as this train slowly rumbled by, the clickity clack sound was very meditative.

I placed my car in park and soon was drifting into memories of growing up in a small town on

a major train route between Chicago and Kansas City. I began thinking how simple life was

and how complicated it is now. If only we could return to those times. The sound of horns blaring snapped me back to see the train was gone and the SUV was moving.
Later that
afternoon those thoughts returned but I was not being lulled by the train sounds. My

family has always been in and around the building and Real Estate business so I have seen

many ups and downs. I began thinking about the times that I remember as simple and the

truth showed up. They may have been simpler yet also harder in some ways. No cell phones,

no Internet, selling a home was a long complicated procedure. To do business you had to always

be close by, I have negotiated contracts on the cell phone while standing on the Vegas Strip,

this is simpler than before. Suddenly a thought struck me about the Real Estate Market, we

remember 2000-2006 as a simpler time. We need to understand the way of business is

different today and not better or worse just different much like life when we were kids. If

we accept that the Market is on a course much like a train on tracks and will get to its

destination whether moving fast or slow our memories of this time will be fonder. Allow

yourself to meditate on the clickity clack of the slow moving Real Estate Market because it

will again be moving fast and you will not be able to read the graffiti.

TAXES, TAX CREDIT, AND LESSONS LEARNED

As the infamous Tax day nears many people are scrambling to finish on time. You would think we could learn from the past and make this a smoother process, yet it seems we are doomed to repeat the Tax scramble each year. The next deadline ticking down is the Homebuyers Tax Credit set to expire April 30,2010. You must have a property under contract by this date to be eligible for the Tax Credit. The Homebuyer has until June 30, 2010 to close the transaction. If you are wanting to take advantage of this Government Program you must focus your attention NOW. The weather is perfect for looking, call your REALTOR and go out ASAP. The convergence of high inventory, low interest, and the Tax Credit make this the perfect time to buy. Don't let this opportunity pass you by, it may never come around again.
My wish is that we have learned a lesson from the past couple years. Our countries economy is rooted in the Real Estate Industry and we must not allow it to get out of balance. Once we stabilize (and some areas are beginning) we are all responsible to call out bad practices. As we move forward please help us to help you by holding our feet to the fire if you see the past being repeated.

Renewal, Adjustments, and the Equinox

Spring sprung a day early this year. We learned in school the first day of spring to be March 21st. But on occasion the earth needs to correct itself and we have an early equinox. Man has been manipulating the calender with leap years. Our industry has been following this naturally occurring adjustment the past couple of years. Just like the earth gaining time and needing to step back, our market had gotten ahead of itself and needed to be corrected. This is hard to accept sometimes because like being taught Spring starts on March 21st our mind does not want to believe different. In many areas it looks like the adjustment may be coming to an end, yet all Real Estate is local. Unlike the earths equinox adjustment that affects all equally the market correction has not. When talking about the Market Conditions remember All Real Estate is local and the stats and data from national sources considers the country as a whole. There are micro-booms within metropolitan areas, certain neighborhoods or home styles are moving faster then others. It is time to renew our faith that the market has all under control the same as the earth in its adjustments.

ONCE IN A BLUE MOON

Tomorrow is a fantastic convergence in the moon cycle a Blue Moon. This Blue Moon falls on the last day of the month, that is not so unusual since the Blue Moon is the second full moon in a calender month. This also happens to be the last day of the year making it even rarer as they do not happen every December. The most spectacular is that it also is the last day of the first decade of the 21st century. As we close out this decade on this Blue Moon let's look back on a few happenings that are as rare as a Blue Moon some tragic others game changing. The first being 9-11 a large terror attack on United States soil, the last time was Pearl Harbor nearly 60 years prior. The election of a President that does not fit the mold we have had most of the last 200 years, the last time was in 1960 with the election of JFK as a non-protestant. The crash of our economy, Real Estate, and stocks, the last big failure was the Great Depression.
As we look forward to the next month, year, and decade let's look at this special Moon as a gift that is closing a chapter or cycle to open a new one. It is Once in a Blue Moon that we have such a complete and distinct closure. My year end wish is that all people look forward with open eyes to the possibilities ahead. Do not forget the past, but do not dwell in it we are a strong community moving forward as sure as the moon will continue on its cycles.

Winter Solstice brings Hope

This is the Winter Soltice, the shortest day of the year and longest night. I was thinking how this could be compared to our Economy. We have been on the waning side of the boom from earlier this decade and at times it seems we will never see an end. The same can be felt with the Winter Solstice it seems like forever since the sun was up before you. Starting tomorrow the sun will rise slightly earlier and set slightly later increasing our daylight. This will not be anything you will notice until one day in a few weeks or months it will strike you that the sun was up before you. Our Economy lead by the Real Estate Industry is beginning to wax and grow yet the growth is ever so slight and we do not notice. One day down the road we will look at our housing market and wonder why we felt so desperate after all it is just a cycle like the seasons.